Prediksi Jumlah Perjalanan Wisatawan Nusantara Asal Provinsi Jawa Barat Menggunakan Metode ARIMA

Abstract

West Java Province has a very potential tourism sector, with various natural, cultural, and historical tourist destinations. This sector plays an important role in the regional economy, but the fluctuation in the number of tourists visiting each year is a challenge in itself. This study uses the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model to predict the number of domestic tourists who will visit West Java in the coming period. Tourist travel data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) between January 2021 and October 2024 were analyzed to obtain more accurate predictions. The prediction results show fluctuations in the number of tourists, with peak visitors in certain months, such as during long holidays or national holidays. With these prediction results, the government and stakeholders can formulate more targeted policies, such as infrastructure management, tourist destination development, and more targeted promotions. This research is expected to contribute to planning tourism sector policies to increase the number of tourists, strengthen the regional economy, and create a positive impact on community welfare.