Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Kota Bandung Menggunakan Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Poverty is one of the main challenges faced by both developed and developing countries, including Indonesia. This study aims to predict the number of poor people in Bandung City using the Double Exponential Smoothing method, with historical data on the number of poor people from 2002 to 2023 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The data is processed through descriptive and time series analysis to identify trends and patterns of changes in the number of poor people, and to estimate projections for the next five years. The results of the study show that the number of poor people in Bandung City tends to decrease gradually with increasing levels of uncertainty in the coming years. The 2024-2028 projection estimates a decrease in the number of poor people from 69,000 in 2024 to 67,000 in 2028. These findings can be used by the government to design more effective poverty alleviation policies, such as increasing access to education, health, and infrastructure. In addition, periodic evaluation and updating of the forecasting model with the latest data are recommended to improve the accuracy of the projections.