Analisis Runtun Waktu Kesenjangan Pendidikan Sekolah Menengah Atas di Jawa Barat (2021-2023)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the pattern of educational disparities in Senior High Schools (SMA) in West Java during the period 2021-2023 using the ARIMA model. Secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency and the West Java Education Office were used to identify trends and patterns of disparities based on school participation rates, teacher-to-student ratios, and the number of educational facilities. The results of the analysis show that the ARIMA (2,1,0) model is the best model with an AIC value of -44.25403, which provides accurate predictions of educational disparity patterns in the region. The prediction results show an increase in disparities in areas with limited access to education and a decrease in urban areas with more equitable access to education. This study makes an important contribution to the formulation of data-based policies to reduce educational disparities and increase equity in access to education in West Java. However, this study has limitations in considering external variables such as policy interventions and the impact of the pandemic. Further research is expected to overcome these limitations to provide more comprehensive recommendations.